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This story has been updated and corrected.

Residents, and some school board members, recently were left wondering how Community Consolidated School District 15's financial outlook could change so dramatically.

For fiscal year 2009-2010, the district had a surplus of about $6.8 million. The district's budget had predicted a surplus of only $132,304.

More dramatic, however, was the district's long-term financial forecast that showed the district finishing 2015 with fund balances of about $30.8 million. The previous 5-year budget outlook had predicted annual deficits that would drain reserve funds and leave a negative balance at the end of 2015.

"It is hard to believe these numbers when two months ago they were exponentially different," District 15 school board member Tim Millar said.

Fellow board member Susan Quinn said, "I don't have a lot of confidence that we have any idea what the future holds."

One reason for the dramatic change is that leadership within District 15 has gone through an upheaval.

The previous budget and 5-year fiscal forecast were compiled by former superintendent Daniel Lukich and the previous Assistant Superintendent for Business and Auxiliary Services Merilee McCracken. The updated five-year report was authored by interim Superintendent Scott Thompson and McCracken's replacement, Michael Adamczyk.

"I am sure I will be able to gain the confidence [of the community and the board]," Adamczyk said after the meeting. "This is a [forecasting] model that I have used throughout my career and that I have been successful with."

Adamczyk said one factor in the changing numbers was how much the budget was off for 2009-2010 from the actual audited numbers.

Adamczyk said one contributing factor was a capital project that was completed and paid for in 2008-2009 but put into the 2009-2010 budget. That alone left District 15 with $1.85 million more than anticipated.

Another factor was that health care costs were lower than anticipated. The health insurance claims District 15 anticipated paying were $700,000 less than budgeted.

"With something like that, you can see pretty big swings," Adamczyk said.

Although a budget for a school district the size of District 15 – with about $150 million in yearly expenditures – can often be off by a million or so, Adamczyk admitted that being more than $6.7 million off was substantial.

"We are looking into the budget to actual numbers to better explain why some of those things happened," Adamczyk said.

The result is that the previous five-year report began with about $6.7 million less at the end of fiscal year 2009-2010. Adamczyk said that if similar errors were made going forward, it could quickly add up and compound. Adamczyk said he did not look at the previous five-year projections before compiling his own.

"I'm a new set of eyes," Adamczyk said. "I wanted to come into it and look at it fresh."

Adamczyk joined the district July 1. He has worked as a business manager at school districts for 25 years, the previous 17 in Troy, Michigan at a district of similar size to District 15.

Adamczyk's numbers assume that the state will pay $4.33 million that it owes the district for fiscal year 2009-2010 and that the state will honor its commitments going forward. Another factor was that Adamcyzk had more up-to-date numbers related to district revenue and the numbers themselves were better for the district.

There were also significant differences in District 15's education fund.

The education fund is the largest fund in the district and includes operational costs such as teacher salaries. In Adamczyk's report, the fund finishes 2015 with a more than a $16 million balance. In the previous report, the education fund reserves were drained and it had a negative balance of about $6.8 million by 2015. That's a difference of nearly $23 million.

Still, Adamczyk's forecast does show a deficit over the next five years that erodes the education fund reserves down significantly.

Adamczyk budgeted zero percent base pay raises for teachers beginning in fiscal year 2012-2013 because that is when the teacher's union contract runs out. However, the teacher's still receive their "step" pay increase in Adamczyk's numbers and even if a raise of a percent or two is added in, the district still would have several million of reserves in the education fund.

Adamczyk said that he believed his numbers were strong. He said stability in the business office and time will help the district get a better handle on its finances and instill more confidence in the board and the community.

Editor's Note: Due to an error in source, a previous version of this story had to be corrected. In a media packet distributed by the district, inaccurate numbers were provided that stated the district would have $47 million in reserves at the end of 2015 instead of about $30.8 million. Likewise the packet stated that the education fund would have $33 million in reserves instead of about $16 million.